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Abstract of "Improving judgmental forecasts," Nigel Harvey, Dept. of Psychology, University College London


First I provide a brief integrative overview of the proposals that other contributors make for improving judgment at different stages of the forecasting process. Then I describe seven principles that are not specified elsewhere in the book. These concern the value of checklists, the importance of establishing agreed criteria for selecting forecast methods, retention and use of forecast records to obtain feedback, use of graphical rather than tabular data displays, the advantages of fitting lines through graphical displays when making forecasts,  the advisability of using multiple methods to assess uncertainty in forecasts, and the need to ensure that people assessing the chances of a plan's success are different from those who develop and implement it.

Keywords: Judgment, forecasting, heuristics, cognitive biases, confidence