25 April 2009 - There has been little research on how best to forecast the effectiveness of altenative strategies for implementing government policies. It seems reasonable to assume that better forecasts of the effects of policy implementation would lead to better better policies, and better implementation of those policies. Nicolas Savio and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos propose in their working paper an approach that combines two evidence-based forecasting methods: strunctured analogies (Green and Armstrong 2007) and econometric modelling.

29 April 2009 - Former OECD Head of Economics and Statistics David Henderson delivered his contrarian analysis at the Oxford Business and Environment Conference "Beyond Kyoto: Green Innovation and Enterprise for the 21st Century". more...

30 April 2009 - Scott Armstrong was interviewed on the BBC "Five Live" show about forecasting the population of polar bears and climate while he was attending the International Conference on Climate Change in New York. more...

30 April 2009 - Eighteen papers on forecasting for public sector problems have been accepted for the International Symposium on Forecasting in Hong Kong (June 21-24). The papers address forecasting issues in education, employment, hospitals, performance, population, terrorism, and transport. The hot topic is climate and related matters, about which there are eight papers.

11 May 2009 - A Select Committee of the New Zealand government are hearing submissions on the Emissions Trading Scheme. Among the submissions are one by Bob Carter and another by Kesten Green that argue that the Scheme is based on unscientific forecasts of climate change and the cost of the scheme. more...