At politicalforecasting.com we believe it is good practice to make it as easy as possible for scholars to replicate each other's work and mine a common body of machine-readable data. Accordingly, this page will serve as a clearinghouse for forecasters of elections and other political events to make their data available to fellow scholars.
2004 Presidential Election
Polly's 2004 Presidential Election Data Set (a Microsoft Office Excel 2003 spreadsheet)
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien's Jobs Model Data, 1948-2004 (a Microsoft Office Excel spreadsheet).
Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, Leading Indicators Data, 1948-2004 (a Microsoft Office Excel Spreadsheet)
A Microsoft Office Excel Spreadsheet with the data analyzed in James E. Campbell, Syed Ali, and Farida Jalalzai (University of Buffalo), â€œForecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948-2004: An Update, Revision, and Extension of a State-Level Presidential Forecasting Model,â€ forthcoming in The Journal of Political Management.
2006 Congressional Election
Carl E. Klarner and Stan Buchanan, US House of Representatives Elections Data, 1974 to 2006 (Microsoft Office Excel 2003 spreadsheet)
2008 Presidential Election
An excel data file with data analyzed in Alfred G. CuzÃ¡n and Charles M. Bundrick "Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model" is accessible here.
Pollyvote Data, August 2007-November 2008.
PollyElectoral Vote Data, September-November, 2008.