Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Dennis W. McLeavey,  Lee, T. S., and Adam, E. E., Jr. (1981), “An empirical evaluation of individual item forecasting models,” Decision Sciences, 12, 708-714.

The need for replication is highlighted by this study. It replicates a previous study by Everett Adam and finds that two of the seven models in the original paper were in error. However, the general results were similar to this replication where seven models were used to make 1-period and 12-period forecasts for five different simulated demand patterns. Lots of results. It is not easy to make generalizations from this study, but here are mine: On one period ahead forecasts, a two-period moving average performed well for constant, trend and seasonal patterns, for a combination of all these patterns and for a step function. None of the five exponential models produced significant improvement and the adaptive smoothing model was less accurate. Double exponential smoothing performed well for all demand patterns on both one period ahead and twelve period ahead forecasts. The better forecasting model depended upon the demand pattern and the forecast horizon, as well as upon the noise level. 


Adam, Everett (1973), "Individual item forecasting model evaluation," Decision Sciences, 4, 458-470.