Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Lawrence H. Peters, Ellen F. Jackofsky and James R. Salter (1981), “Predicting turnover: a comparison of part-time and full-time employees," Journal of Occupational Behaviour, 2, 89-98.

This study attempted to predict employee turnover in a telephone sales job over the 12 months following hiring. Separate analytical models were developed for full- and part-time workers. Predictions were based on items from a survey taken two months after the employees started work. Demographic variables were similar for each group with the exception that part-time workers lived closer to work. Key variables in this study were all derived from previous literature on turnover and included job satisfaction, thoughts of quitting, expectation of finding alternative employment, job search behavior, and intention to quit. These five variables all helped to predict turnover for full-timers–but none of them helped to predict turnover among part-timers! What are we to conclude? I suggest that, as done in this study, it frequently helps to segment a problem and develop a model for each segment. The segmentation in this study might be thought of in terms of the importance of the decision. It is generally easier to predict how people will behave for important decisions.